Global Energy Outlook to 2040

My recent musings on peak earnings, cyclical industries, value traps, and Chevron got me thinking about the state of the energy industry and whether it is a shimmering opportunity at once-in-a-blue-moon price for entry or a cross-dressing value trap disguised as an opportunity. Everyone knows that the price per barrel of oil has been getting decimated for about a year now – it has dropped over 50% in price since July 2014. That has led to the price of ownership in companies such as Exxon and Chevron to fall almost as drastically, with share prices collapsing ~30% for Exxon and ~40% for Chevron from their peak. What to make of all of this?

Continue reading