Mental Model: The Precarity of Reputation

For many of you, this quote is nothing new. You may even be rolling your eyes at the image and quote above. Yes, you have probably heard this more times than your mother telling you she loves you. I still want to reinforce the message with a few examples that creatively unpack that sentence to make it really vivid. What drives you to lose a reputation you built up over decades in under a few minutes (sometimes seconds)? It has a lot to do with the Amygdala Hijack. We will look at examples involving a headbutt, some cannibalism, and illegal injections as our case studies.

Continue reading

The Double-Edged Sword of Models

the-double-edged-sword-of-models

I was recently having a sweaty conversation about the construct and use of models while sitting in a sauna with a friend. We were talking about how the aggregate polling forecast turned out so wrong on the 2016 Presidential Election. I took the position that models are important to have (or else we would just be making random guesses) but can be dangerous if you become overconfident in your model(s). Let’s hash this out.

Continue reading

The US Presidential Election 2016 was the Ultimate Lesson in Confirmation Bias

I’ll admit it right off the bat: out of two pretty piss poor choices for president of the United States, I would have voted for Hillary Clinton. Not because Clinton was some paragon of virtue, honesty, and integrity, but because she was – in my opinion – the lesser of two evils. One candidate was secretive, sly, and carried decades of political baggage that featured many, many skeletons in the closet. The other candidate was an openly racist, misogynistic, megalomaniac who seemed to amplify and provide a voice for the shitty side of humanity. Both had their flaws. My opinion was one had deeper flaws than the other. The greatest takeaway from this election, especially if you were not a Donald Trump supporter, is just how easily so many people got sucked into a circle jerk inside an echo chamber.

Continue reading

Mental Model: The Definition of Cognitive Dissonance

I recently came across on Twitter one of the most bizarre letters I have ever read. This one letter addressed to Warren Buffett on why this investor is no longer going to be an investor of the company is probably one of the most convoluted and bat-shit insane thing I have read in awhile. I’ll keep it short for you this weekend – just the letter.

Continue reading