The Double-Edged Sword of Models

the-double-edged-sword-of-models

I was recently having a sweaty conversation about the construct and use of models while sitting in a sauna with a friend. We were talking about how the aggregate polling forecast turned out so wrong on the 2016 Presidential Election. I took the position that models are important to have (or else we would just be making random guesses) but can be dangerous if you become overconfident in your model(s). Let’s hash this out.

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