*Had to update this as by the end of day March 2, 2018, along with some further trimming of some stock positions and an infusion of new cash into the accounts, cash has increased further from 62%.
As of the end of the day this Tuesday, cash now makes up
62% 70% of the entire portfolio, up 12% 20% from 50%. An old rich white guy once said:
“It takes character to sit with all that cash and to do nothing.
I didn’t get to where I am by going after mediocre opportunities.”
I’m neither old nor rich nor white, so I’m not sure if that advice applies. Anyways, my gut feeling is that the calm, steadily rising markets of 2017 to late-January 2018 are over. Volatility is back. It should open up opportunities to grab some core holdings at decent prices.
So, I sit in cash and wait for prices to reach my range.
As always, the only advice I have is to do as I say (index, dollar cost average, DRIP, and forget) and not as I do (what I’ve just written about).
You know what would be fun? Listing out all the stupid things I’ve bought and the total money I have lost doing so. I’ve probably made a bunch of errors of omission, but let’s take a look at those errors of commission.
Berkshire Hathaway is the company I know the best. This is the company that I would feel 100% fine with holding if the stock market, for some reason, closed for a few years. I would not lose any sleep in that type of scenario. I don’t know if there are any other companies I could definitely say that for with such conviction. 2014 is when I started buying shares. Then, I did an equal amount of selling and an equal amount of buying in 2015 – dumb. Then in 2016, I sold a bunch, like an ass, to buy stuff like Chipotle, which was a big mistake as I eventually sold the Chipotle position after a year at breakeven while Berkshire rose a bunch in 2016. After that, I learned my lesson and implemented my “Never Sell Berkshire Stock” rule: never sell Berkshire, unless it is trading at such an obscene premium that it would make Microsoft at the height of the dotcom bubble look amateurish. Berkshire is a foundational piece in the portfolio. Foundations shouldn’t be messed around with. Oh yeah, and one of these days I should probably get back to recording those shareholder’s letters…
As of yesterday, cash is up to around 50% of the entire portfolio.
I know I mentioned on Monday that it was at around 30%. I’ve been eyeballing how strong the bounce from the bottom of the recent correction has been. I guess I’m not feeling as great about any sort of continued melt up. Upon reflection, I think I’ve been trading in and out for a little while because I don’t believe deep down the narrative that everything is rosy and the market will continue to march higher and higher. So I’ll sit in cash, earning about 0.9% interest and wait.
Stocks are expensive relative to history. The 10 year US Treasury continues to go up. I will be cautious. If I’m completely wrong, as I said 3 years ago, I will just index everything to the total stock market and forget about playing fund manager.
Only advice I have is to do as I say (index, DRIP, and forget) and not as I do (what I’ve just written about).
So I wrote this super long, rambling post exceeding 1000 words, listing all sorts of various trades and fairly esoteric math that only I would probably understand about opportunity cost gains and losses in the portfolio. I realized at the end of it, I didn’t really want to hit that publish button. So I think the compromise is to keep this as simple as possible.