As of yesterday, cash is up to around 50% of the entire portfolio.
I know I mentioned on Monday that it was at around 30%. I’ve been eyeballing how strong the bounce from the bottom of the recent correction has been. I guess I’m not feeling as great about any sort of continued melt up. Upon reflection, I think I’ve been trading in and out for a little while because I don’t believe deep down the narrative that everything is rosy and the market will continue to march higher and higher. So I’ll sit in cash, earning about 0.9% interest and wait.
Stocks are expensive relative to history. The 10 year US Treasury continues to go up. I will be cautious. If I’m completely wrong, as I said 3 years ago, I will just index everything to the total stock market and forget about playing fund manager.
Only advice I have is to do as I say (index, DRIP, and forget) and not as I do (what I’ve just written about).
So I wrote this super long, rambling post exceeding 1000 words, listing all sorts of various trades and fairly esoteric math that only I would probably understand about opportunity cost gains and losses in the portfolio. I realized at the end of it, I didn’t really want to hit that publish button. So I think the compromise is to keep this as simple as possible.
Well, apparently I kept my word about not writing after getting nasal surgery. For 2016, I’m going to break the Year in Review into smaller chunks. Today we focus on stocks. I’ll review the good, the mediocre, and the ugly, as well as lessons learned and my outlook for the year.
One of the reasons posts have been few and far between since the fall is that I have been transitioning the cash flow from debt repayment to savings and investments. If I wasn’t that interested in the art and science of investing, I would have picked 2 Vanguard ETFs, done regular dollar cost averaging over the next umpteen years, and called it a day (this is something I think most people should do as they will have no further interest in analyzing investments). However, I have an obsessive level of interest and curiosity in businesses and want to figure out the most optimal way to invest in businesses. Thus, a lot of time was (and still is) spent gaining knowledge. Let’s talk about one metric I use to screen potential investments: the earnings yield.
Chills ran down my spine. I had just finished reading about investors losing their entire life savings. These people had doubled down and wagered everything on a single company. A single stock. And they lost everything. This is a fascinating read. As I sifted through the carcass of an online trading forum where this drama played out over 500+ pages, I couldn’t help but notice the story and the lessons that unfolded as the days went by. The company was GT Advanced Technologies.
Since I started getting seriously interested in money, investing, and finance back in 2011, I’ve been devouring knowledge on these topics to prepare myself for the plan I have for financial independence and how I intend to get there. These books are my 20 must read money books. Take a look.